FROM AID TO TRADE: PAK-US CRITICAL MINERALS PARTNERSHIP

Abstract

Washington’s ‘From Aid to Trade’ policy shift for Islamabad redefines the US-Pakistan relationship from security-aid dependency towards a trade-focused critical minerals partnership. The paper explores an underlying systemic pressure rather than deliberate bilateral policy design, examining the US-Pakistan partnership by applying Kenneth Waltz’s structural realism to establish why this shift is systematically inevitable and Edward Luttwak’s geo-economics to elaborate how economic instruments have replaced military ones? The present research grounds its argument in three empirical domains: Pakistan’s critical mineral endowment, FWO-USSM Agreement, and China’s dominance of global mineral supply chains. Across these domains, a ten-stage sequential cascade constitutes a systemic fabric of the US-Pakistan relationship. The paper finds out that this structurally compelled transformation carries substantial implications for both the actors, redefining Pakistan’s position and resolving the US mineral dilemma with consequences that extend beyond the bilateral partnership towards a broader architecture of great power competition over the critical resources.