Populism, Institutions, and Cultural Resistance: A Comparative Analysis of Trump’s America and Bolsonaro’s Brazil

Abstract

This study explores the strategic and cultural dynamics of populism through a comparative analysis of the United States under Donald Trump and Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro. The paper addresses a critical gap in the existing research on populism: while prior studies often focus on rhetorical or cultural dimensions, few examine strategic institutional engagement by populist leaders to sustain legitimacy. Using a hybrid framework that combines game theory and sentiment analysis, the study models how populists interact with institutional actors such as courts, media, and legislatures. A two-player game-theoretic model captures the strategic calculus of confrontation and cooperation, while sentiment analysis of social media data (2016-2022) quantifies public emotional polarization. Results reveal that populist legitimacy emerges from a dual mechanism, strategic confrontation with institutions and affective mobilization of followers. By linking rational modeling with interpretive analysis, this study advances a novel, interdisciplinary approach to understanding contemporary populism in divergent political systems.