The Epstein Scandal and the War against Iran: The Threatened Presidency of Donald Trump in 2026

Abstract

This study examines the political and legal crises confronting the Trump administration through May 15, 2026. The release of the Epstein files and the subsequent initiation of war against Iran have created an internal and external crisis. Drawing on newly released Department of Justice documents, this study analyzes the erosion of public trust and the decline in President Trump’s approval ratings to a historic low. The study further explores the administration's controversial handling of the Epstein Files Transparency Act and allegations of obstruction. Moreover, the “Wag the Dog” narrative surrounding “Operation Epic Fury” represents a concerted attempt to divert public attention from the Epstein sex-trafficking scandal. Through a comparative analysis of historical precedents, specifically, the Watergate scandal of former President Nixon in 1972 and the Monica Lewinsky scandal of former President Bill Clinton in 1998, this study evaluates the efficacy of impeachment threats (H. Res. 1155) and the War Powers Resolution, which requires the President to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action. The President may conduct military operations for 60 days without formal Congressional authorization before termination is mandated. The findings suggest that while Trump retains a solid Republican base, the convergence of legal scrutiny, economic fallout from the war against Iran, and intra-party dissent has created a volatile environment that threatens the administration's legislative agenda and long-term viability